Demographic Models for Projecting Population and Migration: Methods for African Historical Analysis
This study presents methods for projecting population and migration over time in cases were empirical data are missing or undependable. The methods are useful for cases in which the researcher has details of population size and structure for a limited period of time (most obviously, the end point), with scattered evidence on other times. It enables estimation of population size, including its structure in age, sex, and status, either forward or backward in time. The program keeps track of all the details. The calculated data can be reported or sampled and compared to empirical findings at various times and places to expected values based on other procedures of estimation.
The application of these general methods that is developed here is the projection of African populations backwards in time from 1950, since 1950 is the first date for which consistently strong demographic estimates are available for national-level populations all over the African continent. The models give particular attention to migration through enslavement, which was highly important in Africa from 1650 to 1900. Details include a sensitivity analysis showing relative significance of input variables and techniques for calibrating various dimensions of the projection with each other. These same methods may be applicable to quite different historical situations, as long as the data conform in structure to those considered here.
Beemer, Bryce, “The Creole City in Southeast Asia: Slave Gathering Warfare and Culture Exchange in Burma, Thailand and Manipur, 1752-1885” (Ph.D. dissertation, University of Hawaii, 2013).
Campbell, Gwyn, An Economic History of Imperial Madagascar: The rise and fall of an island empire (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
Coale, Ansley, and Paul Demeny, with Barbara Watkins, Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, 2nd ed. (New York: Academic Press, 1983).
Frankema, Ewout, and Morten Jerven, “Writing history backwards or sideways: towards a consensus on African population, 1850–2010,” Economic History Review 67 (2010):907–931.
Inikori, Joseph E. “Introduction,” in Inikori, ed., Forced Migration (London, 1982).
Keyfitz, Nathan, Applied Mathematical Demography, 3rd ed. (New York: Springer, 2005);
Klein, Martin A., Slavery and Colonial Rule in French West Africa (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
Lovejoy, Paul E., “The impact of the slave trade on Africa in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries,” Journal of African History 30 (1989).
Lovejoy, Paul E., Transformations in Slavery: A History of Slavery in Africa, 3rd ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011); \\.
Manning, Patrick, "Slave Trade: The Formal Demography of a Global System." Social Science History 14 (1990):255-279.
Manning, Patrick, “African Population: Projections, 1851-1961.” Karl Ittmann, Dennis D. Cordell, and Gregory Maddox, eds., The Demographics of Empire: The Colonial Order and the Creation of Knowledge (Athens: Ohio University Press), pp. 245-275.
Manning, Patrick, “Impact of Slave Trade Exports on the Population of the Western Coast of Africa, 1700 - 1850,” in Serge Daget, ed., De la Traite a l'esclavage, 2 vols. (Paris, Société française d'histoire d'Outre-Mer), II:118-123.
Manning, Patrick, Slavery and African Life: Occidental, Oriental, and African Slave Trades (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990).
Médard, Henri, and Shane Doyle, Slavery in the Great Lakes Region of East Africa (Oxford: James Currey).
Oeppen, James E., “Life expectancy convergence among nations since 1820: separating the effects of technology and income,” in T. Bengtsson (Ed.): Perspectives on mortality forecasting. III: the linear rise in life expectancy: history and prospects (Stockholm: Swedish Social Insurance Agency, 2006), 55-82.
Tomich, Dale, and Michael Zeuske, eds., “The Second Slavery: Mass Slavery, World-Economy, and Comparative Microhistories, “ special issue in Review.
Copyright (c) 2015 Patrick Manning, Scott Nickleach, Bowen Yi, Brian McGill
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
- The Author shall grant to the Publisher and its agents the nonexclusive perpetual right and license to publish, archive, and make accessible the Work in whole or in part in all forms of media now or hereafter known under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Licenseor its equivalent, which, for the avoidance of doubt, allows others to copy, distribute, and transmit the Work under the following conditions:
- Attribution—other users must attribute the Work in the manner specified by the author as indicated on the journal Web site;
- The Author is able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the nonexclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the Work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), as long as there is provided in the document an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post online a pre-publication manuscript (but not the Publisher’s final formatted PDF version of the Work) in institutional repositories or on their Websites prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (see The Effect of Open Access). Any such posting made before acceptance and publication of the Work shall be updated upon publication to include a reference to the Publisher-assigned DOI (Digital Object Identifier) and a link to the online abstract for the final published Work in the Journal.
- Upon Publisher’s request, the Author agrees to furnish promptly to Publisher, at the Author’s own expense, written evidence of the permissions, licenses, and consents for use of third-party material included within the Work, except as determined by Publisher to be covered by the principles of Fair Use.
- The Author represents and warrants that:
- the Work is the Author’s original work;
- the Author has not transferred, and will not transfer, exclusive rights in the Work to any third party;
- the Work is not pending review or under consideration by another publisher;
- the Work has not previously been published;
- the Work contains no misrepresentation or infringement of the Work or property of other authors or third parties; and
- the Work contains no libel, invasion of privacy, or other unlawful matter.
- The Author agrees to indemnify and hold Publisher harmless from Author’s breach of the representations and warranties contained in Paragraph 7 above, as well as any claim or proceeding relating to Publisher’s use and publication of any content contained in the Work, including third-party content.