Journal of World-Historical Information

Preparing for Pandemic Influenza: The Global 1918 Influenza Pandemic and the Role of World Historical Information

Siddharth Chandra — 2017-09-26

The 1918 “Spanish Influenza” was one of the three most devastating epidemics known to humankind. Today it is taken as a model of possible future pandemics by health authorities in many countries. This study reviews and assesses the qualitative and quantitative studies of the 1918 pandemic. It shows that the qualitative studies, while wide-ranging, are neither consistent nor comprehensive at the global level. The quantitative studies, in turn, are limited to the national level and have yet to be combined into a picture of the global dynamics of the pandemic.

Existing studies have considered such issues as mortality waves (from one to three waves for each region of the epidemic), patterns of global diffusion, and the age profile of mortality (often noting high mortality among young adults). Nevertheless, studies of these factors need to be pursued in greater depth. Additional questions, identified by the authors as worthy of analysis, include lingering effects (such as impact on fertility), the relationship between population and mortality, and the relationship between climate and mortality.

It is argued that preparation for pandemic influenza is now a security issue, and that historical studies need to be organized on a more systematic and global level in order to prepare a thorough picture of the 1918 pandemic, in order to anticipate the possible character of any future infections. The study concludes with practical suggestions for creating a global picture of the pandemic from its unfolding in 1918 to its expiration in 1921.

World-Historical Gazetteer Research Report

Ruth Mostern — 2017-09-26

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The Correlates of War Dataset

Ahmet Izmirlioglu — 2017-09-26

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The Maddison Project: Historical GDP Estimates Worldwide

Patrick Manning — 2017-09-26

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Contributors

David T. Ruvolo — 2017-09-26

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Projects in Documenting World History and Next Steps for JWHI

Ahmet Izmirlioglu — 2017-09-26

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Silver Circulation Worldwide: Initial Steps in Comprehensive Research

Patrick Manning — 2017-09-26

Published data on silver flows and stocks, gathered in volumes published by Moneta, provide a basis for initial steps in documenting flows of silver production and commerce from the sixteenth through the nineteenth century. Collection and publication of comprehensive data on silver flows will generate the first comprehensive study of flows of a commodity in the world economy of recent centuries, and will facilitate advances in global economic history. This article presents estimates from 1400 through 1900, showing annual flows of production, cumulative stocks (accounting for various levels of wear and tear), and the long-term rate of growth in silver stocks.

Recent economic historical study of silver in the world economy, from the 15th century onward, has stopped short of comprehensive quantitative analysis. This group uses recently published date from the nineteenth-century silver boom and the international meetings associated with the gold standard to begin such comprehensive analysis. Results indicate that, while world population grew at an annual rate of 0.45% per year, 1700– 1900, silver stock rose at an approximate 0.7% per year in the same period. To support this confirmation of rapid monetization of the world economy, the article describes the procedure of estimating global flows and stocks out of competing estimates of silver flows.