Modelski’s Long Cycle Revisited

Comparing American Decline to British Deconcentration

Abstract

Despite flourishing after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the American order has been weakened by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, growing unilateral neo-isolationism within conservative American politics, and the meteoric rise of China as a great power rival. Though theories of historical comparison are often critiqued, some, such as George Modelski’s pattern of long cycles, seem timely to revisit amid this “deconcentration” of world leadership. This work supports Modelski’s historical case-study by applying quantitative measures of power to make statistically informed comparisons between the changes in the distribution of power between British deconcentration (1885–1914), to the current period of supposed American decline. This work finds statistical evidence of American decline in more measures than the British Empire, despite maintaining a wider margin with its rival. China is increasing its power in all measures at a faster rate than the German Empire during its rise to challenger status. Though statistical forecasting raises doubts whether China can near parity in the coming decades, (mis)perceptions of Beijing’s power, domestic American political fracturing, geopolitical flashpoints, escalating regional wars involving partner states, and differing military readiness strategies make global war between the United States and China a near-future possibility worth continued study.